Too hot and too close. Bitcoin and gold dynamics during COVID times

Abstract

Purpose: This paper aims to analyze the connectedness between bitcoin (BTC) and other traditional assets (e.g. metals) in times of financial turbulence like the COVID pandemic. The purpose is to see to what extent BTC is mimicking the role precious metals are known for, that of being a reliable store of value. Design/methodology/approach: The author relies on vector autoregressive modeling, as it yields a very flexible framework for forecasting and interpreting the interdependencies among variables, while providing a very intuitive framework when the underlying structural model is unknown. The author performs the analysis first for the whole sample and then for a “COVID-19 subsample. Findings: The author finds evidence supporting a stronger link between BTC and gold in COVID-19 times, with BTC the main driving force. The author quantifies the contribution of BTC to the surge in gold’s price during those early months of COVID-19 in the order of 28%, thus lending support to the idea of intrinsic or fundamental value in BTC. Practical implications: Investors might consider including BTC in their portfolios as a long-term investment, very much like they do with gold. Social implications: Cryptos at large represent an important check on the ever-expanding monetary policy pursued by central banks in recent times. Originality/value: The COVID-19 pandemic has taken its toll on the world economy. It is thus timely to reevaluate the relationship between BTC and other assets such as gold and silver, which are traditionally seen as safe havens against uncertainty.