Identifying non-adult attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder individuals using a stacked machine learning algorithm using administrative data population registers in a universal healthcare system

Abstract

Background: This research project aims to build a Machine Learning algorithm (ML) to predict first-time ADHD diagnosis, given that it is the most frequent mental disorder for the non-adult population. Methods: We used a stacked model combining 4 ML approaches to predict the presence of ADHD. The dataset contains data from population health care administrative registers in Catalonia comprising 1,225,406 non-adult individuals for 2013–2017, linked to socioeconomic characteristics and dispensed drug consumption. We defined a measure of proper ADHD diagnoses based on medical factors. Results: We obtained an AUC of 79.6% with the stacked model. Significant variables that explain the ADHD presence are the dispersion across patients' visits to healthcare providers; the number of visits, diagnoses related to other mental disorders and drug consumption; age, and sex. Conclusions: ML techniques can help predict ADHD early diagnosis using administrative registers. We must continuously investigate the potential use of ADHD early detection strategies and intervention in the health system.