Model to predict risk for hospital admission and indicate the safety of reverse triage in a hospital emergency department: A prospective validation study

Abstract

To prospectively validate a model to predict hospital admission of patients given a low-priority classification on emergency department triage and to indicate the safety of reverse triage.

Material and methods: Single-center observational study of a prospective cohort to validate a risk model incorporating demographic and emergency care process variables as well as vital signs. The cohort included emergency visits from patients over the age of 15 years with priority level classifications of IV and V according to the Andorran-Spanish triage system (Spanish acronym, MAT-SET) between October 2018 and June 2019. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the model was calculated to evaluate discrimination. Based on the model, we identified cut-off points to distinguish patients with low, intermediate, or high risk for hospital admission.